Overview of the proposal
A new modelling study suggests that the most damaging phases of El Niño could be softened by making clouds over the central Pacific artificially brighter. The concept builds on the idea of geo‑engineering, but instead of trying to cool the whole planet it targets a specific weather pattern at a precise time.
How the idea emerged
The inspiration came from an unexpected natural experiment. After the catastrophic Australian “Black Summer” fires of 2019‑2020, smoke particles entered the upper atmosphere, whitening clouds and reflecting more sunlight. That chain of events was linked to the development of a multi‑year La Niña, the cooler counterpart of El Niño. Researchers wondered whether a similar cloud‑brightening effect could be induced deliberately.
What the computer simulations show
Using high‑resolution climate models, the team examined the 1997‑1998 and 2015‑2016 El Niño episodes. They simulated the injection of sea‑salt particles from ships into the lower troposphere over a large rectangular patch of the Pacific. The results indicated that if the intervention began in June and continued through February, the typical temperature spikes and rainfall anomalies associated with El Niño would be largely reversed. Regions that normally heat up would stay cooler, while areas that become unusually wet would experience drier conditions, and vice‑versa.
Technical hurdles
Turning the concept into reality faces formidable engineering challenges. Current spray‑nozzle designs cannot generate the required volume of aerosol, and estimates suggest that roughly 2,400 vessels would be needed to achieve a meaningful effect. Scaling up production, coordinating deployment, and ensuring uniform distribution of particles are all unresolved problems.
Potential side‑effects and uncertainties
Even if the technology were perfected, the models flagged unintended consequences. Some simulations showed warming over Europe and Asia, and the long‑term impacts of repeatedly brightening clouds remain unknown. The intervention could also create winners and losers; not every country would benefit from the altered precipitation patterns.
Ethical and policy considerations
Geo‑engineering is a polarising field. Critics argue that it may give polluters a licence to continue emitting CO₂, while proponents see it as a stop‑gap to limit the worst outcomes of climate change while societies transition to sustainable energy. The study’s lead author stresses that we are already locked into a warming trajectory, and that targeted measures could buy time for deeper emissions cuts.
Further research, international governance frameworks, and public dialogue will be essential before any field trial is contemplated.
Source: https://scientias.nl/kunnen-we-el-nino-gewoon-uitschakelen-wetenschappers-onderzoeken-het/
